The 12th Amendment Option
The vertigo from the 2024 Presidential Election roller coaster that voters are riding and cannot seem to get off seems unlikely to settle down within the next three months. Over the past several tumultuous weeks, we have suffered whiplash from a number of different events. On June 3, a prejudiced Manhattan court handed felony convictions to a former President over disagreements on accounting categories involving the commission of a “crime” that has yet to be defined. The June 27 debate spotlighted a glassy-eyed incumbent who is now semi-retired. And, on July 1, the Supreme Court issued a partial immunity ruling for presidential acts.
The near-miss assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania nearly decapitated the GOP without an heir apparent (which would have ensured Brandon’s re-election against a demoralized opposition by default). On July 15, the Fort Pierce federal court dismissed prosecution for storing classified documents, and, on July 17, a cheerful Republican convention in Milwaukee introduced Senator (“Hillbilly Elegy”) Vance (R-OH) as Trump’s populist running mate, with Trump accepting the nomination the following day.
Eight days after Trump survived a grazing bullet, Democrat political leaders orchestrated a bloodless White House coup (on July 21) to depose the delegate-chosen sitting president in favor of a cackling harridan, to wild donor and media acclaim. July 30 revealed Israeli assassinations of prominent Hamas leaders Haniyeh and Shukr (respectively in Tehran and Beirut), demonstrating the administration’s glaring irrelevance in foreign developments.
On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Governor Walz (D-MN) (the “socialism is… neighborliness” guy) to serve as her second fiddle. Ten days later, Ukrainian counter-incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast amplified utter disregard of America’s alleged overseas objectives, heightened by further instability in the Sahel (northwestern Africa). As the world was burning, the “joy” vibe presented at the Democrat’s convention in late August epitomized the vacuous tenor of the electorate. We might be forgiven for recalling the old Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times.”
A Tense Election and a Very Tight Race
Since her media-cocooned coronation, the election polls have tightened to favor the VP, leading to predictions of the Harris-Walz ticket ruling over a dejected populace located outside the urban coasts. Such consequences from an unserious electorate may be the complete ruin of America’s constitutional republic, with the citizenry being further overrun by terrorists and criminal cartels, as the dollar devalues and debt expands by federal expenditure, and our economy continues to contract from energy strangulation.
Foreign military embroilment, mass firearm confiscation and systemic child seizure might not be all that far off. Then of course after being derided for contesting the official narrative, MAGA supporters will undoubtedly be blamed for any Antifa-instigated violence. As a consequence, it might be prudent to buy outdoor sleeping bags for exile preparation, as it tends to get quite chilly in the Aleutian islands during winter.
Commentators pessimistically posit that the election will be grossly unfair dishonest, given the nature of the Elite’s juggernaut and its catlady acolytes. The managerial ruling class hatred towards the “deplorables” living in “flyover country” spurred their fraudulent measures to ensure their continued power despite, or perhaps because of, their inherent incompetence by promising mass prosperity amidst consumptive decadence and aimless despair. Thus, insecure polling identification for non-citizen vote casting and rampant ballot harvesting through insecure deposition and reception, which is likely to be successfully exploited in 2020, cannot be fully mitigated under current circumstances. The six states that decided that election by chicanery may very well also determine the 2024 results.
Excepting Maine (ME, 4) and Nebraska (NE, 5), all states allocate their entire electoral college delegations to the candidate that receives a plurality of the popular vote in that sovereign jurisdiction. Several states have gained or lost congressional representation such that electoral votes in the upcoming election will be based on changes recorded from the 2020 census. Political observers expect that the deciding states will match those in 2016 and 2020 that which featured narrow margins for their victors. These states include Arizona (AZ, 11), Georgia (GA, 16), Michigan (MI, 15), Nevada (NV, 6), Pennsylvania (PA, 19) and Wisconsin (WI, 10).
Most 2024 presidential election scenarios produce a decisive majority of at least 270 electoral votes for either Trump or Harris. But in others for example, if Trump prevails in the sunbelt (AZ, GA and NV), but loses the rustbelt (MI, PA, WI), Harris’ handlers emerge triumphant by only a narrow two count margin. One remotely possible exception involves Trump losing AZ, GA, NV and WI, but winning PA and MI, resulting in a 269-to-269 tie. The tie map below is based on an interactive online webpage.
Although one might reasonably expect that Trump might sooner win WI than MI, this assumes that Hamas fanatics offer unalloyed enthusiasm for a party that temporizes on Israel’s legitimate self-defense instead of displaying unbridled hostility. Moreover, with Governor Shapiro (D, PA) passed over as a running mate, probably due to unspoken anti-semitism, Trump could win PA. A more probable scenario is one in which Trump claims GA while losing MI narrowly wins the election. This circumstance suggests that the Republicans should focus their presidential campaign especially on both Pennsylvania and Georgia.
On the other hand, conservatives can reasonably anticipate a 2020-repeat of irregularities in some or all of the six closest states. Of these states, the political majorities of their legislatures (at present) are Democrat for NV and MI, Republican for AZ, WI and GA, and split for PA. Under article 2 section 1, “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress…”
Assuming Republican legislators can successfully stymie certification in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia (WAG) with 37 electoral votes combined, then no electoral college majority would emerge. (Harris would require only one of these to claim the brass ring, whereas Trump needs all three.) However, legal resistance to challenges of fraud should be expected, not to mention federal threats of prosecution over refusal to certify a specious popular count. Similarly, Congress could reject contested certifications, although such a decision seems improbable, especially with Harris presiding. Despite these obstacles, such efforts, if successful, would yield the resulting WAG map (same online source as for the tie) with 241-to-260 electoral votes for Trump versus Harris.
This result remains in effect were Pennsylvania to miraculously fall into Trump’s column. The electoral count would then reverse to 260-to-241 between Trump and Harris. Then, Trump would prevail with any one of the WAG states, while Harris would need all three.
Enter the Twelfth Amendment
Such conditions invoke the use of the twelfth amendment, similar to what resulted from the tied election in 1800. The relevant language of the Amendment states in the absence of an electoral majority, “then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.” (Emphasis added.) When no candidate receives an electoral majority, the House of Representatives elects the President with each state delegation receiving a single vote, while the Senate determines the Vice President. What happens then?
Election conundrums of this nature are very rare. In 1876 Congress agreed to a political compromise for accepting contested Republican electors. Only in 1824 did the House hold contingent elections, with John Q. Adams prevailing over Andrew Jackson. In that circumstance, the collective delegation of each state each casts a single vote.
The twelfth amendment counterbalances popularity. Rural residents tend to be more self-reliant (both by necessity and opportunity) than their city counterparts. However, urban politicians can impose severe impediments to non-urban regions (deliberately or by proxy). Their power stems from concentrated masses of urban voters, as shown in the three-dimensional political map below, who tower over the country plebes.
California’s control by San Francisco Democrats epitomizes this electoral dominance of urban over rural. Governor Newsom’s sales ban of new gasoline-powered automobiles (cars and trucks) ten years from now serves as an egregious example. Its effect, if not intended purpose, will strand deplorables living beyond the charge range of electric vehicles – meaning those living outside of the metropolitan areas. The 118thCongress has twenty-two Democrat delegations, twenty-six Republican delegations, and two evenly divided. Of these, eleven states have delegations divided by one vote or fewer, but realistically five of these are unlikely to flip. This leaves six states whose overall delegations could theoretically change in the 2024 election, each of which would potentially benefit the GOP: Alaska (AK) seems the most possible, although rank choice voting leaves this in doubt.
Thus, even if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives, with twenty-six state delegations, Trump could nonetheless be reelected. Were Republicans to only gain the open West Virginia (WV) Senate seat, “stolen valor” Walz would become Vice President in this scenario. In that event, Trump would have to govern from his Mar-a-Lago home to avoid additional assassination attempts and also relocate the Vice President’s residence from the Naval Observatory to our embassy in Beijing. Interesting times indeed.
Photo Credit- The Heritage Foundation